商业建筑初期灭火系统分析与决策

Analysis and Strategic Decision of Extinguishments System at the Initial Stage of Fire in Commercial Buildings

初期灭火是遏制商业建筑火灾的最佳时机,针对商业建筑火灾初期灭火过程中出现的问题,构建系统模型进行分析。数据来源于我国商业建筑特大火灾案例,采用贝叶斯统计分析方法进行分析,克服了火灾数据缺乏、且难以进行大量重复实验的困难,得到参数的条件期望估计与方差。通过对系统故障树的分析,得到我国商业建筑火灾初期灭火失败概率的期望与方差,并对参数引起的误差进行系统误差传播分析,最后进行系统决策。

The best chance to extinguish the fire in commercial buildings is at the initial stage of a fire. For the problems during extinguishments at the initial stage of fire, a fire extinguishment system model at initial stage of fire in commercial buildings is designed. The fire data come from the fire cases in Chinese commercial buildings. The expected value and Variance of probability of basic events are calculated by using Bayesian statistical analysis method, which has overcome the difficulty from inefficient fire datum and obtaining repeated fire experience. Then the failure probability of extinguishments system at initial stage of fire is concluded from fault tree analysis and the error propagation analysis of fault tree is made. A systematic strategic decision has been made finally.