北京市接待境外游客的统计分析与预测

Statistical Analysing and Forecasting on the Foreign Tourists to Bei jing

用聚类分析和随机序列分析的方法,对北京市1983～1994年的境外游客进行了聚类分析,并对到京人数占来华总数的比例进行了序列分析.结果表明,经验分类是合理的;各类到京人数占来华人数比例是变化的,其中港、澳、台同胞到京人数的比例预计会有提高,而北美地区到京人数所占比例预计将会下降.

With process of merging of clusters and random sequence merging of cluster for visitors from abroad to Beijing from 1983 to 1994, rondom sequence analysis of the numbers of foreign tourists to Beijing and percent total of international vistors arrival to China were made. It is proved that experiential process of merging of cluster is reasomable and rates of the numbers are changable.