人民币均衡实际汇率研究:1980—2005

A Study on RMB Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate:1980—2005

均衡汇率模型(BEER)实证检验结果显示:1980—1985年,由于人民币名义汇率值较高,造成该期间人民币实际有效汇率处于高估状态;1986—1995年,人民币名义汇率在此期间持续大幅贬值,造成该期间人民币实际有效汇率处于低估状态;自1994年人民币汇率并轨以来,人民币实际汇率的低估幅度逐渐缓解。1996—2003年期间,人民币实际有效汇率处于高估状态;自2004年开始,人民币实际有效汇率开始出现小幅低估。当前应适当控制人民币名义汇率的升值幅度,以避免人民币实际汇率出现高估对经济发展造成负面影响。

This paper employs the BEER model, taking the data from 1980 - 2005, to estimate RMB equilibrium real exchange rate and real exchange rate misalignment. In the period of 1980 - 1985, RMB real exchange rate is overvalued because of the high RMB nominal exchange rate; in the period of 1986 - 1995, RMB real exchange rate is undervalued because of the successive depreciation of RMB nominal exchange rate. The range of undervaluation has been reduced since the exchange rate regime reform in 1994. In the period of 1996 - 2003, RMB real exchange rate is overvalued. Since 2004, RMB real exchange rate has been a little undervalued. Currently we should regulate RMB real exchange rate to make it return to an equilibrium level.