金融发展、资本账户开放与金融不稳定——来自中国的证据

Financial Development,Capital Account Liberalization and Financial Instability:Evidence of China

文章建立一个由金融发展程度、资本账户开放与金融不稳定指标组成的向量自回归（VAR）模型,利用中国1982-2005年的年度数据对这些变量的长期协整关系和短期的调整动力学进行相关的时间序列分析。模型的估计结果显示,对于中国来说,金融发展程度、资本账户开放和金融不稳定之间存在着长期的协整关系,但三者之间的影响程度和方向各不相同。所有结果均显示,无论从短期和长期看,金融发展程度对一国的金融稳定具有显著影响,对资本账户开放的进程也具有重要的影响。

We will establish a VAR model which consists of financial development, capital account liberalization and financial instability. The co-integration empirical work uses yearly data of China from 1982 to 2005. The estimation tries to identify the long run co-integrating relation in the system and then the error correction model is constructed to capture the short run dynamics of the system. The results show that there exists long run co-integrating relation in the VAR system of financial development, capital account liberalization and financial instability. But the degree and the direction of bilateral impact are quite different. We find that whatever short-term or stability and also on the capital account liberalization process based on the financial stability.