中国税制改革的税负代际间归宿——世代交叠生命周期税负归宿模型的理论与模拟

The Intergenerational Tax Incidence of Tax Reform in China

文章建立52期世代交叠生命周期税负归宿模型用以研究税制改革的税负在不同年龄人群之间的归宿。也即在考虑完全预期因素和消费者偏好的情况下,通过构建包括家庭、生产和政府三部门在内的方程组模型,来描绘出整个经济的均衡路径,并用此模型对我国税制改革对不同年龄人群福利的影响进行实证分析——计算我国增值税由生产型转为消费型和税制由流转税为主体税种转为以所得税为主体税种的两项最重要的税制改革对不同年龄人群福利的影响。

A 52-period life cycle model is founded to analyze the tax incidence of tax reform among individuals of different ages. Considering the expectation factor, the model calculates the impact of the change of taxation on consumers using the consumer preference. The model consists of three sectors; a household sector, a production sector, and a government sector. For each sector, there is a system of nonlinear equations relating endogenous behavioral variables e. g. , consumption, labor supply, etc and technological parameters. By solving the equations of these sectors, we can obtain a solution for the equilibrium path of the economy. I calculate empirically the tax incidence of the tax reform among individuals of different ages in China using the theoretical model. The tax reform consists of the changing form of the VAT and the increasing of the proportion of direct tax.