世界铅锌市场的混沌研究

Research on Chaos of International Lead and Zinc Market

对LME(伦敦金属期货交易所)自1970年的铅锌价格进行了调查分析,采用混沌理论研究了世界铅锌市场规律.计算得出,铅市场和锌市场演化的最大Lyapunov指数均大于零,表明世界铅锌市场发展具有混沌特性;铅市场演化的分维数和最大Lyapunov指数均比锌市场小,表明国际锌市场变化过程比铅市场复杂.通过确定性检验,证明铅锌市场的复杂变化是其内在动力学机制演化的结果.对铅锌市场变化数据进行傅立叶变换,得出世界铅市场演化周期是8.27年,锌市场变化周期是8.93年.研究结果显示,对铅锌市场价格数据重构相空间以后,市场变化的细微差别被放大,混沌理论能充分揭示世界铅锌市场的内在演化规律.

The prices for lead and zinc in LME （ London Metal Exchange） since 1970 are analyzed, and the changing laws of lead and zinc market in the world are studied by the chaos theory. The result of calculation shows that both the maximum Lyapunov indexes of the lead market and zinc market are larger than zero, showing that the chaotic character exists in the development of the world lead and zinc market. At the same time, both the fractal dimensions and maximum Lyapunov index of the lead market are smaller than that of the zinc market, indicating that the changes of the international zinc market is more complex than that of the lead market. The de- terminacy verification shows that the complex changes in the lead and zinc market are resulted from the evolution of its internal dynamics mechanism. Through Fourier transformation, it is obtained that the evolution cycle of the world lead and zinc markets are 8.27 and 8.93 years respectively. The results show that with the method of re- constructing phase space to the data of the lead and zinc market, the subtle differences in market changes are magnified, and chaotic theory can fully demonstrate the intrinsic evolution laws of the world lead and zinc market.