2007年三季度外汇和商品市场回顾与展望

FX and Commodity Markets in Q3 2007 and beyond

三季度以来,美元汇率的大幅下跌成为国际外汇市场的主题,尤其是在次贷危机之后,经济受到极大的负面影响,美联储因而被迫减息以应对经济下滑的风险。该文回顾了次贷危机中的美国经济,同时对欧洲经济和日本经济进行了分析,认为欧元和日元将继续对美元保持强势;最后对商品及商品货币做了分析,指出经济基础的持续向好、偏紧的货币政策以及商品价格的上升是当前支撑商品货币汇率的主要因素。

The slump in the US dollar since Q3 2007 has become a theme in international foreign exchange markets. In particular, the EED was forced to cut its rate amid risks of a downturn in the economy troubled by the subprime mortgage crisis. With retrospection on the US economy in the subprime crisis, this paper analyzes the economic situation in EU and Japan, and concludes that euro and yen would remain strong against the US dollar. In the last part of the paper; the author offers an analysis on commodities and commodity money, and points out the major factors supporting the exchange rate of commodity money, i.e., bettering economic fundamentals, tight monetary policy and dsing commodity prices.