基于蒙特卡罗方法的设备维修决策模型

Maintenance Decision Model for Equipment Based on Monte Carlo Method

针对目前重要度评估方法考虑因素不全面、计算复杂的缺陷,通过全面分析设备全寿命全过程中对重要度的影响因素,构建了设备重要度的数学模型,提出了基于蒙特卡罗模拟的重要度评估算法流程,并以铁路机车维修为背景,应用该算法对铁路机车设备进行了重要度评估。结果表明,基于蒙特卡罗方法评估设备的重要度,计算快捷,可以精确和客观地描述设备的重要度级别,为设备维修决策提供可靠的定量依据。

The currently employed methods for the criticality evaluation of equipment are limited for the lack of the factor analysis and complicated calculation. The criticality evaluation model was established, which was different from the traditional qualitative description. Then the algorithm process was presented by employing Monte Carlo simulation. Moreover, the algorithm was applied to the railway locomotive equipments. The research shows that Monte Carlo is an effective approach to obtain more exact and objective evaluation which can be used in making maintenance decision.