摘要
首先以水资源系统为背景，探讨了贝叶斯决策的观点、方法及传统贝叶斯方法的局限性，介绍了不精确概率分布的概念、定义；然后提出了基于有限状态空间不精确概率分布的风险型决策方法，指出了经典的效用函数决策方法及完全不确定型决策方法是该方法的两个特殊情形；
Against background of water resources system, the method of conventional Bayesian decision making and the concept of imprecise probability distribution are discussed. A method of risk based decision making with imprecise probability destribution in the finite state space is proposed. An example of the use of the proposed method is given.
出处
《河海大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
CSCD
1997年第2期65-70,共6页
Journal of Hohai University(Natural Sciences)
关键词
风险型
决策方法
水资源综合利用
决策论
Bayesian decision making
imprecise probability distribution
water resources.
