中国化肥消费需求影响因素及走势分析——Ⅰ化肥供应

Factors Affecting Fertilizer Demand and Supply in China

从化肥的要素特征来说,供应条件在很大程度上决定着消费需求,中国这一特征更加明显。由于我国资源基础薄弱,生产技术整体较低,化肥供应不足,导致化肥消费在建国以后很长一段时间处于较低水平。从上世纪80年代开始,随着资源开发力度加大,化肥生产技术日渐成熟,我国化肥产业在总量上和结构上发生了极大的变化,氮肥已自给有余,磷肥自给率达到94%,高浓度化肥正在逐渐替代低浓度化肥,工业的发展促进了消费。但随着氮磷肥的供需总量趋于平衡,供应对需求的制约和影响正在降低,需求拉动供应的时期即将开始。但我国化肥供应仍存在空间不平衡的问题,化肥消费主要集中在化肥产业发达地区。随着资源缺乏和价格变化,化肥工业将不断向部分资源产地集中,化肥品种结构也将持续向高浓度发展,这将直接导致化肥消费的空间差异进一步扩大,化肥消费品种进一步改变。在资源价格波动影响下,我国化肥价格持续升高,但中国化肥需求价格弹性趋于稳定,在整体经济环境不发生大的波动的情况下,化肥价格变化对化肥需求的影响比较微弱。总之,我国化肥供应对化肥消费的驱动作用正在逐步减弱,通过合理消费来引导化肥产业的健康发展将是未来的方向。

The consumption of chemical fertilizer has five characters. The fertilizer demands is driven by the food demand with the population growth, can be replaced by other materials, independent on agricultural planting structure, affected by agricultural technology and varies in different countries. Multiple characters determine various factors that can affect its demand, in which the supply is the most important factor. This feature has been witnessed obviously in China. The fertilizer consumption in China was constrained by fertilizer supply since the funding of the people＇ s republic of China in 1949. The weak resources base and outdated technology of fertilizer industry in China resulted in the insufficient supply and low-level consumption until the 1990s. In recent years, with the development of exploitation of resources and improvement of manufacturing technology, the fertilizer output and product structure have changed significantly. The self-sufficient nitrogen fertilizer has exceeded 100% and that of phosphate fertilizer got 94% in 2005. More and more categories of fertilizers, which are difficult to be decomposed such as ABC and SSP have been replaced by prone-decomposed ones such as Urea and Di-Ammonium Phosphate. The fertilizer consumption has increased greatly accompanied by the industrial development. It is forecasted that, in the next years, the fertilizer supply would be decided by demand, and the unbalanced supply and demand situation in different regions will emerge and would aggravate when the raw materials for fertilizer production are depleted and their prices are growing higher. It is proved the duration of some key raw materials are lower than 50 years in which the high grade phosphate rock can only be used in next ten years. It is forecasted that the fertilizer industry would be transferred to some regions with abundant natural resources, and more than 50% of the provinces are short of fertilizer supply. And the fertilizer products structure would be changed further from difficult decomposed ones to prone decomposed ones. It is forecasted that the increase of production of N, P205 and K20 would be 6, 3 and 1 million tones respectively from 2006 to 2010. All of the changes would induce the further changes on fertilizer consumption. Although the price of fertilizer has been growing in recent years, the price flexibility decreased to less than 1 that means the fertilizer demand is inelastic to the changes of fertilizer price. In a word, the effectiveness of fertilizer supply in fertilizer consumption is becoming feeble. Therefore, we should to improve the fertilizer industry by using fertilizer reasonably in the future.