北京市产业结构的节能潜力分析

Energy-Saving Potentials in Beijing based on Industrial Structures

北京作为能源输入型的国际性大都市，其能源消费深刻影响着区域能源生产和供应格局的变化。北京市“十一五”规划提出“十一五”期末全市万元地区生产总值能耗比“十五”期末降低15％的战略目标，因此，正确地把握北京市能源消费及其增长变化是关系到能源节约总体战略实现的第一要务。论文运用结构演进一能源消费和结构演进一单位能耗两个基本判断模型，分析北京市能源消费行为的规律，前者通过分析产业结构演进与一次能源消费总量变化两者运动的轨迹，从整体上揭示社会经济发展过程一次能源消费变化的基本特征。后者则通过产业结构演进与单位GDP能耗变化的相关分析，判断产业结构演进的节能效果和变化趋势。研究结果表明，北京市产业结构演进和一次能源消费总量以及单位GDP能耗之闻存在密切关系，其中，在1952～2004年间，单位GDP能耗先升后降，产业结构演进的节能效果明显，一次能源消费总量呈下降趋势，产业结构的升级是北京市“十一五”时期完成节能降耗目标的主要途径。

Saving energy is one of the crucial issues for fully implementing the scientific concept of development and building conservation society. In its llth Five Year Plan, Beijing has set up a target which reducing its energy intensity by about 15% by 2010 compared with 2005. By building an energyeconomy model, this paper studies the impacts of investment, energy price and technological progress on energy demand, forecasts energy demand and conservation potential during 2006 to 2010 based on some possible economic growth scenarios, and puts forward policy recommendations to realize less energy demand in this period in Beijing. As an energy-input international metropolis, Beijing＇s energy consumption is affecting the regional energy production and supply pattern profoundly. To have a thorough understanding of Beijing＇s energy consumption and growth situation is of great importance to the accomplishment of its overall energy-saving strategy. Through brief analysis between modernization level and energy consumption in Beijing City, the paper points out that using the elasticity coefficient and unusual energy consumption per 104 Yuan GDP have lose its validity, and also very difficult to assure the future potential and direction of energy saving. Based on these, from the new angle of industrial structure evolution, the paper has carried on a quantitative analysis to the relationship between structure evolution and energy consumption. The results are： 1）The industrial structure evolution have a decisive influence on energy consumption, and total energy consumption will maintain current level or drop gradually along with the evolution of industrial structure in Beijing City;2） Since China＇s economic reform and opening up to the outside world, the evolution coefficient of industrial structure has increased one unit, which means it save approximately 0.46-ton standard coal per ten thousand Yuan （GDP）;3） The rapid development of＇ferrous metallurgy Industry had directly stimulated a fast growth in energy consumption, and caused the local ecological environment degradation. Obviously, improved industrial structure is an important way to reduce energy consumption. Therefore, the improvement of industrial structure will be the key in Beijing City.