不同生态类型蝗区东亚飞蝗发生期气象预报

The Study of Meteorological Forecast on the Emergence Period of Locust Migratoria Manilensis in Different Ecological Regions

气象条件是影响东亚飞蝗发生期早晚的重要因子,建立发生期的气象因子预报对虫害的防治十分必要。通过对河北省不同生态类型蝗区东亚飞蝗1980-2003年发生期资料及同期气象资料用合成分析法进行分析,筛选影响东亚飞蝗发生期早晚的关键气象因子,用逐步回归分析方法建立不同生态类型蝗区东亚飞蝗发生期的预报方程。通过历史回查,并在2004年至2005年进行试报,误差一般在4 d以内,可以纳入业务运行。

Meteorological condition is the key factor which affects the emergence period of locust migratoria manilensis. It is necessary for preventing and curing insect pest to establish meteorological forecast model of the emergence period. Through the analysis of observation data of meteorological of locust migratoria manilensis in different ecological region in Hebei and data in its corresponding period using compound analysis, the critical factor affecting the growth period is selected. Forecast model of the emergence period of locust migratoria manilensis in Hebei is established by stepwise regression method. Through the examination, the forecast was consistent with the real condition in 2004 and 2005 respectively, and the error is no more than 4 d. The results can be turned into operation.