滑坡风险评估的难点和进展

Difficulties and Problematical Aspects of Landslide Risk Assessment:an Overview

近年来,国内外滑坡研究日益重视滑坡风险评估和管理技术方法的研究,但滑坡风险评估依然是存在很多问题和难点,尤其是在中等—大比例尺区域滑坡风险定量评估方面,主要表现在滑坡编录数据库建设、滑坡影响因素的识别和建模、滑坡时间、空间预测的不确定性,滑坡诱发因素动态变化的定量刻画,承灾体识别和易损性定量评价等方面。在阐述滑坡风险评估流程的基础上,围绕滑坡风险评估与制图中滑坡编录和基础数据获取与更新,危险性分析中的滑坡空间、时间概率和滑坡特征预测、损失评估中的易损性分析与定量和承灾体定量化制图等技术方法中的难点和存在的问题,概述针对这些问题所取得的研究进展,并指出了滑坡风险研究的技术发展趋势。

There have been improving emphasizes on the landslide risk assessment and management methodology and key techniques development for the domestic and overseas landslide study field in recent years. However, there are still existing lots of difficulties and problematical aspects, especially at medium to large scales quantitative risk assessment. The difficulties and problematical aspects includes landslide inventory database construction, landslide diagnostic factors identification and modeling, uncertainties of landslide temporal and spatial predication, the dynamic changes of landslide triggering factors quantitative modeling, elements at risk investigation and vulnerability quantitative assessment, and etc. Based on the illustration of the framework of landslide risk assessment, this paper reviews the problems and difficulties related to landslide risk analysis on the determination of its spatial and temporal probability, the modeling of landslide run-out and characteristic aspect predication, and consequence analysis includes vulnerability quantitative analysis and element at risk quantitative mapping as well. Furthermore, an overview of recent developments in the different approaches to landslide hazard and risk assessment at medium scales is given, and the main trend of landslide risk assessment methodologies and techniques development as well.