太原市颗粒物空气污染与人群每日死亡率的关系

Concentration-response relationship between particulate air pollution and daily mortality in Taiyuan

目的:研究颗粒物空气污染与居民每日死亡率暴露-反应关系,为环境决策提供科学依据。方法:应用样条函数模型分析2004至2005年太原市每日死亡率时间序列数据,可吸入颗粒物(PM10)为暴露变量,同时控制长期趋势和季节趋势、气象因素、周日亚元变量以及其他空气污染物等的混杂影响。结果:PM10与各种死因别死亡率为非线性相关,呈现阈值现象。经微分推导,总死亡率、恶性肿瘤死亡率、心脑血管和呼吸系统疾病合计死亡率阈值分别为85.00μg/m3、89.59μg/m3和122.54μg/m3。结论:太原市PM10与人群每日死亡率暴露-反应关系为非线性相关,呈现阈值现象,与欧美国家不同。

Objective： To further study concentration-response relationship between daily mortality and particulate air pollution, to provide scientific basis for making policy. Methods： We applied spline model to daily time-series data for Taiyuan city, China from 2004 - 2005, using concentration of particulate matter less than 10μm in aerodynamic diameter （PM10） as the exposure measure, and controlling confounding factors, such as season, meteorological factors, day-of-the-week, other air pollutions, etc. Results ： The splirie model showed a non-linear relationship for the relative risks of death for all causes （ total deaths） and for specific causes in relation to PM10 concentration, and obtained threshold levels. For total mortality, malignant tumor mortality and cardiovascular-cerebrovascular-respiratory mortality, the threshold levels were 85.00 μg/m^3, 89.59 μg/m^3, 122.54 μg/m^3, respectively,using the value of differential deduction. Conclusion： Our nonlinear models are appropriate for assessing the effect of particulate air pollution on daily mortality at current ambient levels in Taiyuan, China, in contrast to those of Europe and America.