太平洋航线集装箱货流量GM(1,1)-马尔可夫链预测方法探讨

Prediction of Container Transportation Volume of Transpacific Line with GM(1,1)-Markov Chain Model

运用灰色系统理论对太平洋航线集装箱货流量进行定量预测,并结合马尔可夫预测方法对航线运量进行定性分析,达到定量与定性预测相结合的目的,使预测结果更加合理。采用马尔可夫链划分系统的状态,得出状态转移概率矩阵,分析了太平洋航线集装箱货流量的发展变化区间并预测集装箱航运市场的发展前景。

The grey system theory is used to quantitatively predict the container transport volume of the transpacific line. The Markov prediction method is adopted in the qualitative analysis of the line freight volume. With the combination of the quantitative and qualitative prediction, the prediction results will be more reliable. By using the Markov chain in classifying the system state, the state transition probability matrix can be obtained. Then the container transport district of the transpacific line is analyzed. Finally, the development of the containership market is forecasted.