一个贝叶斯离散可靠性增长模型(英)

A Bayesian Discrete Reliability Growth Model

本文提出了一个贝叶斯离散可靠性增长模型．假设一个产品的开发过程由m个阶段组成．在每一个阶段中，都进行一个成败型寿命试验．在试验结束后，再分析其结果，然后对产品进行修改或重新设计，以期提高产品的可靠性．如果产品的失效可分为不可修复的以及可修复的两种．假定产品的不可修复失效概率在各个阶段中保持相同，而可修复失效概率随着试验阶段的增加而减少．

This paper presents a Bayesian discrete reliability growth model. It is assumed that a product development phase consists of m stages. At each stage, an attribute life test is conducted.Then test results are analyzed and modifications or redesign are taken in an attempt to improve the product reliability. Suppose that a failure can be categorizcd as either nonfixable-cause or fixablecause. Under the assumptions that the nonfixable-cause failure probability remains unchanged and the fixable-cause one decreases from stage to stage,a reasonable prior distribution, the truncated multivariate beta distribution, is adopted for the failure probabilitics. Then Bayesian analysis is conducted by incorporating prior information with test data. A numerical example is given for illustration purpose.