公司经营困境风险的动态评价模型研究

Dynamic Model for Evaluating Corporate Business Distress Risk

以医药制造业上市公司为例,在一个特定的行业背景下,采用非配对取样方式,应用Log istic离散时间风险模型,对公司经营困境风险进行了动态评价。结果显示,股票的S igm a系数值、股权集中度、公司规模及资产负债率与经营困境风险显著相关。评价中发现,为了达到一个较好且合适的分类识别正确率,决策者必须在型Ⅰ类错误成本与型Ⅱ类错误成本之间进行权衡。此外,在行业内选取了经营困境公司与经营健康公司作为2个对照组,发现2组公司的经营困境风险动态演化过程存在明显差异,这种可视化演示方法对经营困境发生的危险时段有预测作用。

Taking the medicine manufacturing industry as an example and using non-paired sam- ple, the corporate financial distress was evaluated dynamically by Logistic discrete time hazard model. The results show Sigma of company＇s stock returns, ownership concentration, company＇s size and as- sets-liabilities ratio are significantly related to financial distress risk. It is seen that in order to achieve a high and appropriate correct classification rate, the cutoff should be selected by trading off type I error cost and the type Ⅱ error cost. By comparing the distressed company group with the healthy company group, it is found that there exit significant difference in the dynamic behavior of survival rate and hazard rate. This video demonstrating method can be used to predict “the likely time to distress”.