洪泽湖历史洪水分析(1736─1992年)

ANALYSIS ON THE HISTORICAL FLOODS (1736─1992) IN HONGZE LAKE

根据1736－1911年文献记载的洪泽湖年最高水位及1914－1992年湖区水文测站的水位、流量资料，进行了长、短序列的入湖洪峰流量及不同时段洪量的频率分析，进而推求出不同重视期的设计入湖洪量和洪水年份相当的重现期，并分析洪水的灾害特征，结果表明：1）洪泽湖历史上洪水发生频繁，1786、1851、1906年均发生过特大洪水，高堰志桩分别至163、23．4、16．1尺。2）1953年建库后，湖水位上升。年最高水位历年平均值较建库前升高了1．22m；多年平均水位升高了1．72m。3）1916－1992年淮河蚌埠站年入湖洪峰流量、最大3日洪量、最大30日洪量和年平均流量频率分析显示。1954年分别相当于20、20、45．5和30．3年一遇洪水。1991年分别相当于7．1、7．1、10和14．7年一遇洪水。1991年洪水总体上小于1954年，但灾情超过1954年．表明湖区受灾程度有加剧趋势。

According to the annual highest water level records by historical documents (1736─1991) about Hongze Lake,as well as the data of water level and discharge at hydrologic stations around Hongze Lake (1914─1992 ), this paper makes frequency analysis of various flood parameters in long and short time courses,calculates designed in-lake flood volume in return periods,and analyzes return periods and flood damage which corresponds to the flood years. The results show that: (1) Floods occured frequently in history in Hongze Lake,when serious floods took place in the years of 1786, 1851 and 1906, and water level of Zhizhuang at Gaoyan reached up to 16. 3, 23. 4 and 16. 1 Chi respectively; (2) After Hongze reservoir built in 1953, the lake water level went up. The yearly highest water level increased by 1. 22m while the perennical mean water level increaead by 1. 72m; (3) The frequency analysis results on peak discharges. maximum 3-day flood discharge as well as annual mean discharge, respectively at Bengbu hydrological station in Huaihe River (1914 ─1992 ) show that the flood in 1954 was equivalent to 20-year, 5-year, 45. 5-year and 30. 0-year peak flood discharges while the flood in 1991 was equivalent to 7. 1-year, 7. 1-year, 10-year and 14. 7-year peak flood discharges. respectively. Different frequency analysis results show that the flood discharge in 1991 was less while the damages in 1991 were greater than those in 1954.