中国沿海海平面的上升预测模型

Estimate Model of MSL Change along the Coast of China

温室效应引起的全球海平面上升,已为世界各海洋国家所关注。研究表明,近20多年以来,我国沿海的海平面以1.5mm/a的速率上升,这与全球海平面上升的趋势是一致的。为了预测海平面的这种上升趋势,本文试图从温室效应引起的全球海平面上升和结合我国沿海海平面变化特点提出我国的海平面变化预测模型,即中国沿海海平面上升趋势既取决于全球温室效应的增强,又受到沿海地壳升降和地面下沉的影响。文中给出了我国海平面变化预测模型和沿海不同海域2030年,2050年和2100年的海平面较1980年上升的估计值,并给出这些海域1980～2100年海平面上升的预测曲线。

Analyses show that the rate of MSL change along the coast of China is 1. 5mm/ a in the past 20 years. This rate is just the same as the global mean sea level rise. In this paper a simple estimate model of MSL change is given by considering greenhuose gas emission, climate change, thermal expansion in the ocean and the characteristics along the coast of China. Long period vibration of MSL is one of the main causes of MSL change along the coast of China. Its amplitudes and phases are given by harmonic analysis as tide constituents. MSL rise along the coast of China depends on not only the global mean sea level rise, but also geographic areas. In order to actually estimate MSL rise the coast of China is devided into five areas, the coast of Liaoning and ebei, the east coast of Shandong Peninsula, the coast of Jiangsu and Fujian, the coast of Guangdong, and the coast of ainan and Guangxi. The 'best guess'value of MSL change lies between 9 and 13cm, between -3 and Ocm , between 12 and 16cm, bet ween 4 and 8cm and between 12 and 15cm during 1980 - 2030; between 16 and 23cm, between -1 and 6cm, between 19 and 24cm, between 9 and 13cm, and between 19 and 24cm during 1980 - 2050; and between 49 and 69cm, between 21 and 40cm, between 54 and 74cm, between 31 and 56cm, and between 54 and 74cm between 1980-2100 respectively.