民工流动与乡村中年失业

Movement of Farmers-turned-laborers and Rural Middle-aged Unemployment in China

对包括民工在内的各类乡村劳动力的年龄结构进行了分析。城市民工需求年轻化导致三个后果。首先导致青年民工的供不应求,从而在乡村还存在大量剩余劳动力的前提下,出现了全国性的民工荒;其次,导致乡村现有中年剩余劳动力难于在城市就业;最后,导致进入中年后的民工绝大多数无法继续在城市就业,中年民工家庭因不具备在城市定居的经济能力不得不回乡。后两个结果的不断积累产生了中国特有的一个经济现象——乡村劳动力的中年失业。

The paper analyses age structure of different groups of rural laborers, including farmers-tumed-laborers, and point out three consequences resulting from youngness of urban demand for farmers-turned-laborers. First, demand for farmers-turned-laborers exceeds its supply, therefore,on condition that there are great amount of rural laborers surplus, shortage of farmers- turned-laborers emerges. Second, it is difficult for current rural middle-aged laborers surplus to find job in cities. And third, when young farmers-turned-laborers get older and become middleaged one, most of them cannot find job in cities, cannot afford urban living expense of their family, and have to go back to their rural homeland. Last two consequences result in a special phenomena in China middle-aged unemployment of rural laborers. From this result, the paper also discusses effects of rural laborers＇ middle-aged unemployment on tendency of urbanization, reasonable wage standard of farmers-turned-laborers, appropriate industrial structure of a region, and policies on employment and social security for farmers-turned-laborers.