Weibull与HCZ预测模型在聚合物驱产油量预测中的应用

Application of Weibull and HCZ forecast models in polymer flooding oil production prediction

以建立聚合物驱产油量预测方法为目的,首先分析了Weibull预测模型和HCZ预测模型的特点及其对聚合物驱产油量预测的适用性,推导了2种模型预测聚合物驱产油量的过程。应用2种预测模型可计算聚合物驱最大产油量和最大产油量出现的时间、不同时刻的聚合物驱产油量、累积产油量、聚合物驱阶段采出程度等指标。现场应用证实,HCZ预测模型与Weibull预测模型相比,对实际产油量的拟合程度高,2种模型预测的聚合物驱产油量的误差均在10%以内。预测模型预测结果可靠,计算快,应用方便。

Aimed at developing polymer flooding oil production forecast method,the characteristics and applicability of Weibull and HCZ forecast models in the polymer flooding oil production prediction are firstly analyzed. The prediction procedures of these two models for the polymer flooding are derived. The two models can be applied to predict polymer flooding oil production peak and peak time. Also they could be used for predicting oil production rate at various time,cumulative oil production and recovery factor during polymer flooding. Oilfield application indicates that HCZ modelmatches well with the observed oil production rate compared to the Weibull model,and the errors of these two models in predicting polymer flooding oil production rate are both lower than 10%. The prediction result is reliable. It is easy and fast to predict the polymer flooding oil production with these two models.