沿海城市风暴潮灾害风险评估研究进展

A Review of Risk Assessment of Storm Surge on Coastal Cities

联合国国际减灾十年计划提出应更加重视自然灾害所造成的风险及其相应的防灾预案。经过十几年的发展,风暴潮灾害风险评估逐渐形成了独特的研究领域。目前国内外风暴潮灾害风险评估研究主要集中在对风暴潮数值预报、潮高估算和重现期研究,危险性评估,承灾体暴露性和脆弱性评估,灾害风险区划、灾情损失评估等,对沿海城市的风暴潮灾害综合风险及其次生灾害链风险的研究则较少。从自然、社会、经济、政策、文化和工程等多角度建立沿海城市风暴潮灾害风险评估指标体系,运用3S技术对沿海城市的风暴潮进行综合灾害风险研究是当前风暴潮灾害研究的重要方向。今后的研究重点应构建基于场景的风暴潮灾害风险评估方法体系和开发基于风险的决策支持系统,加强灾害撤退避难图编制研究,建立持续的城市灾害风险管理体制以及对防灾预案和灾情损失的定量化预评估等。

The United Nations International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction （IDNDR） gives rise to an increasing level of attention to the risks posed by a range of natural hazards and the development of strategies by which to reduce those risks. After many years of development, risk assessment of storm surge becomes a distinctive study field and an important part of risk management of storm surge. At present, more focus has been put on the numerical prediction of storm surge, the estimation of the height of storm surge and return period, the assessment of the hazard impact and the exposure and the vulnerability of the hazard-affected bodies, the regionalization of the natural disaster risk and the assessment of disaster losses, instead of the study of the comprehensive risk assessment of storm surge in coastal cities and the consequential disaster chain. Forming a indicator system for the risk assessment on the point of nature, society, economy and so on and making a comprehensive storm surge risk research based on 3S are an important field of storm surge study. This paper points out that the future study should be to develop scenario-based methodologies for storm surge risk assessment and the auxiliary risk-based decision supporting systems, to enhance compilation of the map of retreat and to set up sustained disaster risk management system in metropolises. The quantitative assessment of disaster prevention programs and disaster losses should also be stressed.