青藏高原及邻近区域的大震危险性分析和探讨

Analysis and Discussion on Larger Earthquake Risk in Qingzang Plateau and Its Circumjacent Region

用青藏高原及周边区域的历史地震和近代地震的分布特征来分析本区域的地震危险性。通过用1889年以来的7级以上大震的面波震级对印度块体推挤作用所积累的能量进行了分析和计算,结果表明每年在该区域将会积累的地震波能量在2.09×1016J左右。分析认为,由于应力的不均匀分布,能量得不到全面释放,所以大的地震将会在一些断层带上重复发生。

Earthquake risk in Qing-zang plateau and its circumjacent region is analyzed using the characteristics of historical and recent earthquake distribution. The accumulated energy by jam of Indian plate is analyzed and calculated by using surface-wave magnitude of earthquakes with magnitude equal to or greater than 7 since 1889. The results show that the seismic wave energy accumulated in this region would be around 2. 09 × 10^16J a year. It is thought that, because the energy can not be overally released due to nonuniform stress distribution, large earthquakes may repeat on some faults in this region.