河南省洪涝灾害时间序列的分形特征与R/S分析

Fractal Characteristics and R/S Analysis of Time Series of Flood Damage in Henan Province

基于河南省1000～1999年的洪涝灾害统计资料，运用分形理论对河南省洪涝灾害的时间序列特征进行分析，发现河南省洪涝灾害发生时间序列的分步呈现出明显的分形特征，其分形维数为0．517，同严格意义上的数学分形Cantor集合相比分维数较小，说明河南省洪涝灾害发生发展的自组织程度还有进一步发展的趋势，其危害程度将可能进一步提高；在河南省洪涝灾害发生时间序列的分形特征的基础上，通过R／S分析，得出该省洪涝灾害发生时间序列的日指数为0．580，说明河南省洪涝灾害具有长期相关性，且未来的洪涝灾害发生的次数具有不断增加的趋势。

Based on the statistical data of flood damage occurred in Henan province from 1000 to 1999, fractal theory is used to analyze the flood damage. It is found that obvious fractal feature exists in time series of flood damage and the fractal dimension is 0. 517. However the fractal dimension is smaller than that of Cantor model. Such result indicates that the self-organizational degree of flood damage is of a development trend and their risk degree will increase. On the basis of the fractal feature of the time series of flood damage, through R/S analysis, H index of flood damage are calculated as 0. 580. The H index indicates that the occurrence of flood damage has long-terms correlation and the future occurrence of flood damage will increase perpetually.