深圳市商品住宅市场空置率的计算分析

收集深圳市2005～2007上半年共10个季度商品住宅的空置面积与存量房统计资料,建立计量分析模型,计算深圳市商品住宅总空置率、待销空置率、滞销空置率和积压空置率。结果发现,深圳市商品住宅的总空置率在近两年从0.95%逐步下降到0.33%,待销率、滞销率和积压率则表现波动。建议根据商品住宅目前各项空置率变化的不同趋势来制定相应的政策,使深圳市的商品住宅市场得到健康的发展。

Ten seasons （2005-20071 statistical data of commercial residential houses in Shenzhen have been collected. A feasible econometric model is established for the vacancy rate calculation, It includes of total vacancy rate, waiting sale vacancy rate, unsale vacancy rate and overstock vacancy rate. The resuhs show that the total vacancy rate dropped down from 0. 95% to 0. 33% in the observation period. At the same time. the other three subsectional rates fluctuated slightly, h is suggested that different macro -policies should bc taken to manage the market for healthy direction.