基于生态足迹指数的全球生态可持续性时空分析

Spatiotemporal Analysis on Sustainable Ecosystem in World Based on Ecological Footprint Index

生态足迹受人口、消费、科技等社会、经济及自然因素影响,且都是绝对数字,不能真正反映一个国家和地区的生态可持续性。因此,基于吴隆杰提出的具有较好分析、比较功能的生态足迹指数(EFI),并利用WWF《地球生命力报告》系列数据,对1961—2003年全球的生态可持续性进行长时间序列的动态评估,对154个国家和地区2003年生态可持续性进行空间序列静态分析。结果发现:42 a来全球EFI在波动中急剧下降,1987年转入不可持续状态,2003年达到-25.28%;2003年生态足迹总量排名前10位的国家生态可持续性强弱排序为巴西>俄罗斯>墨西哥>法国>中国、印度>美国>德国>英国>日本,人均生态足迹排名前10位的国家排序为新西兰>芬兰>澳大利亚>加拿大>瑞典>丹麦>爱沙尼亚>美国>阿联酋>科威特,全球7地区排序为拉丁美洲和加勒比海地区>非欧联盟>非洲>北美>亚太区>欧洲联盟>中东和中亚;若将EFI大于0、HDI大于0.8作为可持续发展的标准,《2005年世界人文发展报告》公布HDI较高的国家中有3个处于区域内可持续发展状态。

The ecological footprint （EF） method has gained much attention in the academic, policy-oriented and popular literature since its introduction in the mid-1990s. The change of EF is influenced by society, economic and natural factors of population, consumption, land use, climate, technology,management and so on. But ecological ootprints indices can＇t reflect the state of sustainable ecosystem of countries or regions since they are absolute figures. Therefore, dynamic change of sustainable ecosystem in world is assessed with long-time series from 1961 to 2003, and the ecosystem sustainability of 154 countries and regions in 2003 is analyzed based on ecological footprint index （EFI） by Wu. The results show that： 1） Over 42 years, the EFI of the world bad rapid reduced with fluctuation. EFI is -25. 28% in 2003. 2） The order of countries with the total EF in the first 10 place in 2003 are Brazil〉Russia〉Mexico〉France〉China, India〉USA〉Germany〉U. K. 〉Japan according to EFI. The order of countries with the per capita EF in the first 10 place in 2003 are New Zealand〉Finland〉Australia〉Canada〉Sweden 〉Denmark〉Estonia〉USA〉United Arab Ernirates〉Kuwait according to EFI. 3） There are 31 countries and regions with strong ecological sustainability,29 countries and regions with weak ecological sustainability,54 countries and regions with unsustainability,and 40 countries and regions with severe unsustainability. Middle ＇East and Central Asia, Europe EU are running severe unsustainability. Asia- Pacific and North America are running unsustainability. Latin America and the Caribbean have more ecological reserve than Africa and Europe Non-EU. 4） There are 3 countries with the high HDI in 2005 is running actual sustainability if the criterion of sustainable development is EFI more than 0, HDI is more than 0. 8.