对1978年以来中国GDP事实特征的认识——基于实际商业周期理论

The Cognition of the Truth of Chinese GDP Since 1978

在实际商业周期理论的指导下,文章对1978—2004年中国GDP数据进行了随机游走的假设和检验,结果表明,反映宏观经济重要事实特征的GDP数据可看作二阶差分后带随机性趋势的随机游走过程,进一步的分析得出了与凯恩斯学派观点截然不同的宏观经济事实特征。

According to the theory of real business cycle, the paper tests the assumption of random walk of China＇s GDP by processing the data of GDP from 1978 to 2004. The results show an important fact that these GDP data which reflect China＇s macroeconomic characteristics can be regarded as a random walk process with stochastic trend after a second-order difference. A further analyses result in the macroeconomic characteristics that are opposite to the main views of Keynesian macroeconomic.