装备维修性增长的Gompertz模型

Research on Gompertz Model of Equipment Maintainability Growth

为提高和完善装备的维修性,初步提出维修性增长的模型,分别利用Virene算法和最小二乘法估计Gompertz模型参数,通过Gompertz模型预测装备未来的维修性水平,最后结合维修性增长试验数据,运用实例说明了2种方法的合理性。计算结果表明,运用最小二乘法估计Gompertz模型参数更加准确。

To improve and perfect the maintainability of equipment, the definition of maintainability growth model is put forward tentatively. Then the Virene method and least square method are adopted respectively to estimate the parameters of the Gompertz model which is used to predict equipment’s future maintainability. Finally, with the maintainability growth test data, an example is given to further illustrate the applicability of the two methods. The calculation results show that the least square method is more accurate to estimate the parameters of the Gompertz model than the Virene method.