天山西部山区降雨量空间分布的研究

Research on Spatial Distribution of Rainfall in the West of Tianshan Mountain

为合理确定作为水文预报精度的主要制约因素的降雨量的空间分布,结合地学统计方法,针对天山西部山区特殊的地理位置和地形复杂的实际情况,通过采用地理信息系统(GIS)常用的反距离加权法(IDW)、克里金方法(Kriging)等插值方法探讨了天山西部山区降雨量的空间分布。考虑到高程、坡度、坡向对降雨量影响较大,在协克里金方法(Co-kriging)方法的基础上将高程、坡度、坡向作为影响因素引入降水量插值方法中,改进了协克里金方法。通过以卡海流域内外共23水文及遥测站点2005年年降雨量插值计算分析发现,改进的协克里金方法插值结果较理想,在天山西部山区是可行的。

The investigation on the spatial distribution of rainfal in the west of Tianshan Moutain was carried out to deternine rational spetial distribution of rainfall which was considered as the main restrictive factor of hydrological forecasting precision.The spatial distribution of rainfall in the west of Tianshan Mountain was discussed,based on GIS,IDW,Kriging methods.As graphic location,slope,aspect and height have more tremendous influence on rainfall,which were introduced into the Co-Kriging method for spatial rain fall interpolation and the Co-Kriging method was improved.And rainfall data,twenty-three sites of hydrology and telemeters in KaHai drainage area in 2005 were analyzed and calculated to find that the new Co-Kriging method was feasible and the result was more perfect,the method was feasible in the west of Tianshan Mountain.