隔河岩水库入库年径流长期趋势分析

Analysis of long-term trend of annual runoff of Geheyan Reservoir

运用非参数法小波分析和Mann—Kendall检验分析隔河岩水库入库年径流长期变化趋势。应用M—K法对径流进行检验，在置信水平5％下径流没有显著的变化趋势。应用连续小波变换阐明径流的时间尺度特征，径流存在1～3年、5—9年、12～15年三类尺度的周期性变化规律。应用离散小波成分分析影响径流趋势变化的主要周期成分，结果显示2-年周期成分是主要的周期成分。径流的离散小波成分趋势分析清晰地展示了径流的趋势结构，对于径流的中长期预测具有重要意义。

The long-term trend of annual runoff series of Geheyan Reservoir is analyzed with non-parametric methods, such as wavelet analysis and Mann-Kendall test. The Mann-Kendall test shows that the annual runoff has no remarkable variation at 5 % believable level, the continuous wavelet transformation indicates that the time-scale character of runoff has 1-3 years, 5-9 years and 12-15 years periodic variation regularities, the discrete wavelet component analysis shows that the 2-year periodic component is the essential component which influences the variation trend of annual runoff and clearly shows the trend structure of annual runoff, this is very important for mid-long term runoff prediction.