近51a西安气候变化的R/S分析

The Analysis of Urbanization Effect on Climate in Xi'an by R/S Method

运用R／S（Rescaled Range Analysis）方法，对西安市1951～2001年过去51年的气温、降水量、相对湿度、水汽压等气候指标的年平均、冬季、夏季进行了分析计算，通过计算，各指标的Hurst指数H值均大于0．5，说明4个气候指标存在明显的Hurst现象，反映出西安过去51年的气候变化趋势，并预测了西安市气候未来的发展趋势，证明了城市化效应已经对西安产生了显著影响。

Global warming is becoming a sensitive problem in the world. The climate of the China has been effected intensively. The R/S analysis on temperature, precipitation, relative humidity and vapor pressure in annual mean, winter and summer for the past 51 years from 1951 to 2001 in Xi＇an showed that all the Hurst indexes were higher than 0.5. The conclusions were as follow ： （ 1 ） The temperature and vapor pressure were increased in winter, summer and annual mean. Meanwhile, the relative humidity was decreased. （2） The precipitation was increased in winter but decreased in annual mean and summer. These proved the significant Hurst phenomenon in four climate indexes and reflected the trend of climate change and climate prediction of the future development trend of Xi＇an. The urbanization effect affected significant to Xi＇an.