工业化升级中的农村要素流动和收入保障——基于苏州制造业升级与农村劳动力“返土”、土地集中的理论分析

Rural Factor Flow and Income Ensuring in the Upgrading of Industrialization: from the Case of Suzhou

传统发展经济学从农村剩余劳动力转移角度来界定经济发展,暗含着工业化始终处于一定水平上。然而,现实中的工业化是一个不断的产业升级过程。本文在苏州产业升级和农村变化的实践基础上,通过模型论证了在工业化升级下出现的中年农村劳动力"就业难"和"返土"现象,及其对工业化升级所需要的土地集中的影响。本文分析得出:由于中国简单劳动力市场竞争激烈,工业化升级会对中年农村劳动力在工业部门就业产生逆向冲击,使得农民在工业部门的就业面临更大的不确定性。如果采取不适当的土地集中方式,将会使农民失去未来生活的保障,并阻碍土地集中。本文在比较了一次性补偿方式和土地股份制之后,进一步得出,一次性补偿方式会降低农民集中土地的积极性,在现有土地产权制度下,土地股份合作社能够增加农民当期福利并保障他们未来生活,从而使土地集中得以顺利进行,在一定程度上支持了工业化升级。

Traditional Developing Economics defines economic development as surplus rural-labor transfer, supposing industrialization degree is at a certain level. In reality, Industrialization is a ceaseless process. Based on upgrading of industrial structure and rural change in Suzhou, this paper analyzes the results of upgrading of industrial structure such as phenomenon of return-migration and difficulty in land-centralization by some models. According to this paper, because of the extensive competition on simple-labor market, upgrading of industrial structure will make a reverse employment impact upon middle age peasant-worker. This impact makes peasant facing more uncertainty of working in the industrial section. If government makes improper land-centralization policy, peasants will lose safeguard in their future life and the land-centralization will be cumbered. After comparing the means by one-off compensation and the means by land-stocked cooperation, further more, we demonstrate that the former will depresses the peasants' enthusiasm in land-centralization and the later can guarantee and promote peasants' welfare under the given institution of asset-right. However, we argue that land-stocked cooperation would be some type of activator to land-centralization and upgrading of industrial structure.