促进江湖联系的闸口生态调度防洪排涝风险分析

Flood Risk Analysis of Ecology-based Sluice Operations in Connection Lakes with the Yangtze River

以天鹅洲长江故道湿地自然保护区为例,根据风险分析理论对促进江湖联系的闸口调度的防洪排涝风险进行了研究。分析结果表明:促进江湖联系的闸口调度方式对目标区洪涝灾害风险存在一定影响,但在合理的调度方式下,如能采取具有针对性的对策措施,则程度比较轻微;促进江湖联系的闸口调度方式取得的生态和环境效益巨大;在当前对保护区经济财产有一定影响,但从长远来看,如能充分利用良好的生态和环境,积极开展环境教育和生态旅游以及相关的第三产业,其直接和潜在经济效益将会很大,远远超过目前的种植和养殖业。总体而言,在重视可持续发展和大力提倡科学发展观的今天,促进江湖联系的闸口调度方式比现行调度机制更为合理,其示范和带动作用也不可低估。

On the basis of risk analysis theory, the flood risk of ecology-based sluice operation in connection lakes and the Yangtze River is studied with a case of Tianezhou wetland. The results show that ecology-based sluice operations have some impacts on the flood risk in the research areas, but if advisable countermeasures are adopted, the impacts will become very slight. Ecology-based sluice operations bring a huge benefit to the environment and ecology only with a slight impact on the short-term economic profit, and that from a long-term point of view, if the good environment and ecology will serve for environment education, ecological traveling and other related services, the potential economic benefit would be much larger than agricultural benefit at present. In a word, the ecology-based sluice operation is more reasonable than the operation mode at present.