最大Lyapunov指数法在电力系统短期负荷预测中的应用

Application of Maximal Lyapunov Exponent Method in Short-term Power Load Forecasting

研究最大Lyapunov指数的预测方法在电力系统短期负荷预测中的应用。针对最大Lyapunov指数的单步预报模式进行多步预测时存在严重的误差累积效应的缺点,文章提出了最大Lyapunov指数的多步预报模式。通过对山西省电网的实际负荷数据进行预测,结果表明多步预测时,基于最大Lyapunov指数的多步预报模式有更高的精度。

The application of the maximal Lyapunov exponent method in short-term power load forecasting is researched. Serious cumulative error is the main shortcoming of maximal Lyapunov exponent single-step method for multi-steps prediction of chaotic time series, maximal Lyapunov exponent multi-steps forecasting model is presented. The short-term load forecasting of Shanxi power network shows that maximal Lyapunov exponent multi-steps forecasting model for muhi-steps prediction is more accurate.