福建入境旅游与经济增长和对外开放关系动态分析

An Analysis of Dynamic Relationship among Fujian International Tourism and Economic Growth and Opening up to the outside

本文运用协整检验、脉冲响应及方差分解等计量经济学方法,分析了福建省入境旅游、经济增长与对外开放的动态关系。结果表明:福建入境旅游收入、国际旅游人数、经济增长与对外开放存在协整关系;国际旅游收入受经济增长与对外开放影响效应大于其自身及入境旅游人数的影响效应;入境旅游市场对改革开放有先导窗口作用,国际旅游收入增长对经济增长与对外开放的正向作用时滞较长;入境旅游发展对经济增长的依托性增强。

This paper, by economics means of co-integration tests, Impulse Response Function and, Variance Decomposition, analyzes the dynamic relationship of Fujian international tourism and economic growth and opening up. The results are as follows： there is a co-integration relationship among Fujian international tourism and economic growth and opening up; the effect of economic growth and opening up shocks on international tourism income is greater than that of itself and international tourism market growth; international tourism market growth is the leader and window of opening up, the favorite time lag of international tourism income to economic growth and opening up is longer; dependence of international tourism income increase on economic growth is increasing.