基于VAR模型的我国货币错配影响因素研究

An Analysis on the Influencing Factors of China's Currency Mismatch Based on Vector Autoregression Model

发展中国家在融入全球经济体系时普遍面临货币错配，我国也不例外。近年来，我国的货币错配日益严重。在定性考察了我国货币错配影响因素的基础上，运用1985～2006年的经济数据，通过构建两个VAR模型，对我国货币错配及其影响因素进行了实证检验。结果表明：汇率制度选择对货币错配的影响最大；其次为经济增长速度；再次是贸易顺差程度。最后根据实证检验的结果，提出了管理和控制我国货币错配的四项政策建议。

Currency mismatch is a universal problem for all developing countries being integrated into the global economic system. There is no exception, even for China is the same. In recent years, China＇s currency mismatch is becoming increasingly serious. This article, first, qualitatively analyzed the influencing factors of currency mismatch in China. On this basis, using China＇s economic data from 1985 to 2006, the paper tested the relation between the currency mismatch and its influencing factors, by constructing two Vector Auto-Regression （VAR） models. The result of positive test indicated that： choice of exchange rate regime is the most important influencing factor to currency mismatch, followed is the rate of economic growth, then is the degree of trade surplus. Finally, according to the result of positive test, raised four policy recommendations to manage and control currency mismatch.