我国货币供应量与国内生产总值关系的实证研究

An Empirical Study on the Relationship between Money Supply and GDP in China

利用我国1992年第1季度～2006年第3季度的数据，通过Granger因果关系检验、Wald系数检验和HP滤波分析，检验了货币供应量（M2）和国内生产总值（GDP）之间的协整关系。研究发现：M2和GDP之间存在长期稳定的协整关系，且M2与GDP之间的关系显著正相关。通过实证分析表明：我国货币政策对宏观经济的短期调控效果不明显，我国货币供应量具有明显的内生性。

This paper tested the coordinating relationship between M2 money supply and GDP, based on the season＇s reports data of China from the first season of 1992 to the third season of 2006, and Granger causality test, Wald test and HP filter coefficient analysis. Research found that there exist a long - term stable coordinating relationship and significant positive correlation between M2 and GDP. Empirical analysis shows that China＇s monetary policy doesn＇t effect the regulation and control on macro - economy in a short term, because China＇s money supply has obvious endogenous.