河北省冬小麦气候适宜度动态模型的建立及应用

Application and establishment of climatic suitability dynamic model of winter wheat in Hebei Province

运用模糊数学理论结合前人研究成果，建立了冬小麦温度、降水、日照隶属度模型和气候适宜度模型，分别计算了河北省冬小麦1960-2005历年全生育期和各发育期的温度隶属度、降水隶属度、日照的隶属度和气候适宜度。结果表明，河北省冬小麦温度隶属度和日照隶属度较大，光热资源一般条件下能够满足冬小麦生长发育要求，降水隶属度较小，降水条件是冬小麦产量形成的限制因素。冬小麦气候适宜度为下降趋势，10年下降速率为0．012。冬小麦各发育期气候适宜度以分蘖期、返青期、拔节期变化幅度较大，这与河北省的天气特点是一致的。

The temperature attribute, sunlight attribute, precipitation attribute model and climatic suitability model of winter wheat are set up by using Fuzzy mathematics theory and referring to former study, and the temperature attribute, sunlight attribute, precipitation attribute and climatic suitability of different growing periods have been calculated separately with the model and related data during 1960 - 2005 of Hebei Province. The results show that temperature attribute and sunlight attribute are relatively big, and precipitation attribute is small in Hebei Province. So light and heat resources can meet the demands of winter wheat growing, and precipitation becomes the limited factor. Climatic suitability of winter wheat has decreasing trend, and the decade decreasing rate is 0. 012. Among climatic suitability of the tillering stage, turning green date and jointing stage during winter wheat growth have a great change range, which is in accord with the climate character of Hebei Province.