供应链生产能力的柔性决策研究

A Study on the Supply Chain's Capacity Decision with Flexibility

面对不确定性的市场需求,能力的选择和分配是供应链设计中的重要问题。本文应用实物期权方法研究供应链中制造商的生产能力决策,给出柔性条件下的能力决策规则。结果表明,较高(低)的能力投资成本、风险较大(小)的市场和较低(高)的缺货成本将使得制造商推迟(提前)其扩大生产能力决策的实施。

Facing uncertainty demand, capacity choice and allocation become important issues in supply chain design. Focusing on the defects of literatures, this paper applies the real-option approach to study the capacity decision of manufacturer in supply chain, and gives some rules of the capacity decision with flexibility. The results show that a higher （lower） capacity investment cost, a more （less） risky market, or a lower （higher） out of stock cost is likely to postpone （advance） the implementing of capacity expansion.