我国主要海洋产业发展规模预测分析

Prognosis and Analysis of the Development of the Major Ocean Industries in China

通过收集整理1952—2002年50a的海洋经济统计数据,结合计量经济学手段进行时间序列分析。依样本空间和分析对象的不同,运用趋势外推法分别建立了线性模型、抛物线模型、生长曲线模型3种预测外延模型结构。并对预测外延模型结构进行了数据拟合与相关参数分析,总结出了适合预测海洋经济发展的线性模型和抛物线模型。根据海洋渔业、海洋油气业、海滨砂矿业、海洋盐业、海洋船舶工业、海洋交通运输业、滨海国际旅游业等7个主要海洋产业各自发展特点,用预测模型分别进行拟合,建立适合各海洋产业的预测模型。最终对2010年全国6个主要海洋产业、分产业总产值进行了预测。

Through collecting and handling the statistical data from 1952 to 2002, combined with econometric methods, the time series analysis is performed. According to the difference of the sampling space and analyzed objects, structures of three kinds of extensional forecast models, i.e., the linear model, parabolic model and growth curve model are constructed using the trend extrapolation. In addition, the data fit and correlated parameter analysis of the structure of the extensional forecast model are made, providing with the linear model and parabolic model that is applicable for forecasting the development of the marine economy. Based on the features of the development of the seven major ocean industries, that is, marine fishery, marine oil-gas industry, coastal placer mining industry, marine salt industry, marine shipbuilding industry, marine traffic and transportation industry, and coastal international travel industry, the forecast models applicable for all ocean industries are constructed, through separately fitting of these features by the forecast model. Finally, forecast of output values in 2010 of the six major ocean industries and sub industries in china are forecasted.