长三角地区基础设施投资与FDI流入关系的实证研究——一个时间趋势设定下的VECM分析框架

The Relations between Infrastructure Investment and FDI in Yangtze Delta——An VECM Analysis Frame under A Time Trend Enactment

本文以长三角地区1981-2005年的数据为样本,通过在VECM分析框架中引入时间趋势,将影响FDI的集聚力和分散力进行分离,研究了该区域基础设施投资与FDI流入之间的关系。研究发现:长三角地区的基础设施投资与FDI流入存在一种充分体现政府宏观调控"逆向选择"特征的负向协整关系;而且无论是在短期内还是在长期内,该地区基础设施投资都是吸引FDI流入长三角的原因。

This Paper studies the relations between the infrastructure investment and FDI by applying the VECM analysis frame under a time trend enactment, which based on the data of 1981-2005 from the statistic yearbooks on Yangtze delta district, after isolating the dispersion force and agglomeration force. The research conclusions show that there are a contrary co-integration relation between the infrastructure investment and FDI, and the government play an adverse selection role which adjusted the infrastructure investment level according to the inverse direction of FDI afflux quantity. It also finds that the region＇s infrastructure investment is to draw on the FDI afflux in Yangtze River delta, whether in short-term or in long-term.