贵州省对外贸易与经济增长的经验研究

Empirical Study on the Relationship between Foreign Trade and Economic Growth in Gui-zhou Province

我国学者已有的经验研究普遍支持对外贸易促进经济增长的假设命题,但其中有关西部经济落后省份的对外贸易是否带动了当地的经济增长进行的研究甚少。针对对外贸易促进经济增长的假设,本文根据1978-2005年贵州省GDP、进出口的统计数据,运用ADF检验、协整关系、Granger因果检验、以及向量误差修正模型等研究方法,分析了对外贸易与经济增长之间的关系。结果表明:贵州省进出口贸易与经济增长之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系,且经济增长是出口、进口增长的Granger原因,而进出口之间则存在双向因果关系。

Although foreign trade is widely believed to have a positive effect on economic growth in domestic empirical studies, the research of whether foreign trade improves economic growth in the western undeveloped provinces is far from being well understood. Regarding the hypothesis of ＂foreign trade improves economic growth＂ , this paper employs the measurement of ADF test, co-integration test, causality test and vector error correction model to examine the relationship among GDP, import and export according to statistics of Gui-zhou province from 1978 to 2005. It proves that there has been a long-term equilibrium among import, export and economic growth. Economic growth respectively is import and export＇s Granger cause and there is mutual relationship between import and export.