西安气象要素变化的马尔柯夫概型预报

Testing and evaluation of rhythm system of outstanding women′s 100 meter hurdles race

应用时间离散、状态离散的马尔柯夫过程理论，结合多元线性回归，以实测时间序列内部概率分布结构为特征，建立了西安几类气象要素的短期预报模型．计算结果表明，模型对气象要素的短期（时）变化规律有较好的反映能力．

This article has made comprehensive research based on the quantitative studies of the movement rhythm of the women′s 100 meter race in the 7 th National Sport Meet in such aspects as the speed curve of the whole journey, speed by sections, average length and frequency of pace, the distribution of length of pace in jumping the hurdles and the running rhythm between hurdles. The result shows that there are some common patterns and differences in skill levels in the changing of the whole journey speed between the selected athletes of our country and the athletes of the World Olyrnpic Games. The article suggests that the reasonable distribution of pace length and pace rhythm is the important basis for the rhythm of hurdle races and is also the decisive factor for fast speed.