新产品市场扩展的宏观技术经济特征:──日、美化工、电气产品的实证研究

Charaterization of Diffusion Trajectory of New Products

本文通过实证研究，揭示发达国家新产品的市场扩展过程。发现新产品伴随一系列技术创新而成长，继而推动相关工业的发展；新产品市场扩展遵循Logistic扩展规律，扩展参数呈现不同的行业分布；虽然经济危机对其产生严重阻扰影响，但新产品扩展具有顽强的规律回复功能。

This paper has studied the diffusion process of new products in the course of technological innovation. It is found that new products diffuse in the market With their own inherent trajectories expressed by a simple logistic equation. Each product has its own rate of diffusion. Some consamer producto, or in lower price, diffuse very quickly.