中国经济波动的总供给与总需求冲击作用分析

Assessing the Role of Aggregate Demand and Supply Shocks in China's Macroeconomic Fluctuation

基于AD-AS模型,本文估计了一个包含产出和价格水平的结构式向量自回归模型,以此揭示1996—2005年期间驱动中国经济波动的总供需力量变化,并发现,近年来的"高增长、低通胀"是在有效供给能力改善的强有力推动下实现的。这意味着,全球化条件下实现我国经济稳定持续增长的关键因素正在从需求转向供给。因此,现阶段的宏观调控应更加重视供给管理,把提升本国经济竞争力、增加有效供给能力、提高国民收入水平放在宏观经济政策的首位。

In this paper, we try to assess the role of aggregate demand and supply shocks in China＇s fluctuation, using a bivariate structural VAR model to investigate macroeconomic dynamics for China within the aggregate-demand-aggregatesupply framework. We hold that China＇s high growth should be associated more with greatly improved supply capability in recent years. This result implies that the key factors that drive the economic growth have shifted from demand side to supply side under globalization. Therefore, the macroeconomic management should pay more emphases on supply control under current situation.