流动性、流动性过剩与货币政策

Liquidity,Liquidity Excess and Monetary Policy

本文认为,应当从金融资产的到期日曲线界定流动性更为准确,流动性过剩不在于货币供应与信贷的较快增长,而应当从资产组合理论出发,将流动性过剩理解为,人们持有的短期资产超过了合意的均衡水平,而长期资产不足。这就可以解释流动性过剩下相伴随的资产价格大幅上涨和收益曲线平坦化的两个典型现象。流动性还可以从不同的角度进行分析。由于流动性的变化改变了货币政策中介(操作)目标与最终目标之间的相关性,因此,流动性的变化(过剩)可能促使货币政策范式的调整。中国现阶段的流动性管理是非常狭窄的,本文最后提出了改善我国流动性管理的建议。

This Paper holds that it is more correct to define liquidity as maturity curve of financial asset. Money and credit growth rate increasing does not mean liquidity excess, which should be defined as that short term asset is more than the desired equilibrium level and long term asset is inadequate in investor＇ s portfolio in perspective of asset portfolio theory. On this ground, it is understandable that the typical phenomena of asset price is booming and yields curve becomes flatting accompanied with liquidity excess. Liquidity can be analyzed from various perspectives. The relationship between monetary policy intermediary target （operation target） and ultimate target might be changed by varied liquidity, therefore, liquidity change （excess） might make central bank reform monetary policy framework. This paper holds that liquidity management is too narrow in China and proposes some brief advice of improving Chinese liquidity management.