房地产价格与通货膨胀、产出的关系——理论分析与基于中国数据的实证检验

The Relationship between House Price and Inflation,Output

本文运用一个简单的数理模型与四象限模型分析了房地产价格影响通货膨胀与产出的机制,结论是:房地产价格通过影响总需求对物价水平产生压力,其中,房价对储蓄的边际影响十分重要。在此基础上,综合运用相关性分析、协整检验、脉冲响应函数与方差分解等方法实证检验我国房地产价格与通货膨胀、产出的关系,其结论是:短期内,房地产价格对通货膨胀与产出的影响十分有限,长期则对通货膨胀与产出产生重要的影响,并且,在房价与通货膨胀、产出之间存在正反馈作用机制。这意味着在一个平稳的宏观经济环境中,这种正反馈机制可能会引发经济过热和房价泡沫。

With theory model, this thesis analyses the mechanism of house prices affecting inflation and output, the conclusion is：house prices exert ascending pressure on inflation through aggregate demand, and the marginal impact of house price on saving is very importantoBased on this, author tests the relationship among house prices,inflation and output with methods such as correlation analysis, co-integrate test. The conclusion of empirical test is ：the effects of house prices on inflation and output is very limited in short term; but in the long term, the effect is very significant, and there exist positive feedback mechanism among house prices, inflation and output. This means that such mechanism will bring about economic overheating and house price bubbles in a stable macro-economy environment.