GM(1,1)的改进及其在经济发展预测中的应用

The Improvement of GM(1,1) and Application of it in Prediction of Economic Development Indexes

针对传统GM(1,1)在模型参数绝对值较大时参数求解精度较差的问题,采用免疫进化算法对其参数求解方法进行改进,然后将改进后的GM(1,1)应用到四川省的经济发展指标预测,并和采用传统GM(1,1)所得的预测结果进行了对照.结果表明,采用免疫进化算法对GM(1,1)参数求解方法的改进是有效的,改进后的GM(1,1)对四川省的经济发展指标预测结果比传统GM(1,1)的预测结果有明显改进。

Based on immune evolutionary algorithm, the parameters of GM （1, 1） are optimized, and then the model is applied to the prediction of economic development indexes, Compared with the traditional GM （1,1） , the new model achieved better results,