道路交通事故再现分析结果的不确定性分析

Analysis of Traffic Accident Reconstruction Uncertainty

实际道路交通事故中包含大量的不确定因素,充分考虑这些不确定因素并采用不确定性方法分析其对道路交通事故再现结果的影响,可以提高再现分析结果的可靠性和准确性。针对道路交通事故中的不确定因素,将随机理论和随机摄动技术引入到道路交通事故分析,并应用不确定性理论给出了分析结果的置信区间和置信度,提高了事故分析与再现结果的精度。以汽车-行人交通事故为例,对车辆行驶速度和人车路面接触位置进行不确定性分析,并与随机模拟方法得到的计算结果进行对比,验证了本文方法的正确性和实用性。

There are many uncertain factors in road tratSc accidents. It is necessary to consider the uncertainty influence of these factors by random theory to improve the analysis veracity. In order to improve the precision and reliability of traffic accident analysis and reconstruction, random theory and the probabihstic perturbation method are introduced for the uncertainty analysis of traffic accident. The confidence interval and confidence of parameters are obtained expediently by the uncertainty analysis and the precision of traffic accident analysis or reconstruction is improved.A typical vehicle-pedestrian accident is investigated by the method above, and the calculated result is contrasted with Monte Carlo simulation method, which proves that the method adopted in the paper is accurate and effective.