对我国出生性别比失衡人口规模的判断

An Estimate of the Size of the Affected Population by Imbalanced Sex Ratios at Birth in China

中国人口经历了长达1／4世纪的出生性别比偏高的过程，其结果是男女性人口数量的严重失衡。现有统计资料难以准确反映男女失衡的规模，间接估算，1980-2006年出生性别比偏高的出生队列累计，男性比女性“多出生”3331万人，其中“应该多出生”1846万人，“偏高多出生”1485万人；2006年0～26岁存活人口中，男性比女性多出3402万人，其中“应该多出”1965万人，“偏高多出”1437万人。

China has had abnormally high sex ratios at birth （SRB） for a quarter of century. One of the consequences is the imbalance of population size between males and females, however, it is difficult to reach the exact number according to current available different statistical data sources. By indirect estimation, the size of male births in excess of female births during 1980 to 2006 are totaled 33.31 million, of which 18. 46 millions are the result of normal SRB imbalance （SRB〉107） while the remaining 14. 65 millions are the result of abnormal SRB imbalance （SRB〉107）. By the end of 2006, the size of males in excess of females is estimated to be 34. 02 millions in the total survivors aged 0 to 26 （born in 1980 to 2006）, of which 19. 65 millions resulted from normal SRB imbalance and 14. 37 millions from abnormal SRB imbalance.